The Smart Grid Research Consortium (SGRC) announced new SGRC Utility Solar PV Forecasting Models and Forecasting Service. The SGRC Solar Models and Service provide the first commercially available annual forecasts of residential solar PV system installations, energy and hourly load impacts, costs and benefits over a 10-year forecast horizon. Forecasts are provided for distribution feeders, substations, ZIP areas, and the entire utility service areas. Low, medium and high forecasts are provided to reflect the range of likely PV installation and load impacts.
The Consortium, which is known for its Smart Grid Investment Models (SGIM), recently extended its analysis to “grid-edge” new technology applications and, with the Solar PV Forecasting Models and Forecasting Service, is now addressing utility financial and load impacts of solar PV distributed energy resources.
Continuing PV cost reductions, growing popularity of power purchase agreements, tax incentives and other factors are responsible for year-over-year doubling, or more, of PV installations in many states. Recent Austin Energy and NV Energy utility-scale procurements at less than 4 cents/kWh portend a rapidly arriving transformation for residential utility customer installations with significantly increasing solar PV penetrations in nearly all utility service areas. These PV impacts present both utility challenges and benefits that are quantified with the SGRC Solar PV Forecasting Models and Forecasting Service.
The Consortium Models and Service provide utilities with annual, geographically detailed forecasts of the likely number and hourly load impacts of residential PV installations on their distribution systems over the next decade. The agent-based statistical models underlying these forecasts are estimated with data on more than 7 million utility customers and nearly 500,000 solar PV installations. Models are applied at feeder/substation and ZIP level and reflect the “clustered” nature of PV installations resulting from geographic patterns of household, dwelling unit, neighborhood and other characteristics that drive PV sales.
PV forecasts are designed both to assist utility distribution planners and to provide a program evaluation tool for utility solar program development. Additional information on the Solar PV Forecasting Service and the Consortium’s Solar PV Forecasting Model is available at the SGRC web site: smartgridresearchconsortium.org/solarforecasts.htm
“While installations are still a relatively small percentage of the total utility customer base, they tend to be geographically highly concentrated with potentially large impacts in certain ZIP areas, substations and along certain individual feeders” said Dr. Jerry Jackson, the Smart Grid Research Consortium leader and research director. “Heavy saturations of PV along feeders create power quality issues, asset life degradation due to excessive regulator and capacitor bank switching, and other problems. Some locations in Hawaii, California, New Jersey, and Arizona are reportedly already facing these challenges. With the substantial increase in solar installations expected in coming years, these issues will become more problematic for many utilities. The Consortium’s PV Forecasting Models estimate the number, location and load impacts of residential solar PV installations annually over the next ten years. Results identify specific geographic areas where future solar PV installations are likely to be great enough to require distribution modifications to address PV-related issues.”
“An equally important application supports utility solar program planning and development for utilities promoting solar resources. Models provide residential solar PV installation forecasts for entire utility service areas including alternative forecasts that reflect different levels of utility and other incentives and different assumptions on future PV costs. Forecast results can be applied to evaluate program costs and benefits and to assess residential solar PV contributions to meeting utility renewable energy goals. Model results quantify reductions in loads, system losses and delayed capital investments.”
The SGRC Solar PV Forecasting Models have been developed by merging the Consortium’s Smart Grid Investment Model (SGIM) financial analysis resources and Jackson Associates (JA) MAISY Utility Customer Databases and Agent-Based Energy and Hourly Load Forecasting Models. The SGIM has been applied for 20 electric utilities since its development in 2010 while MAISY modeling and forecasting analysis have been applied at more than 100 energy-related organizations including utilities, equipment manufacturers, state and federal regulatory agencies and other energy-related organizations.
“This application is one of the most exciting new technology forecasting applications that we have developed in recent years because the dramatic decline in solar PV prices is driving an industry decentralization transformation that will soon impact every utility at its most publicly vulnerable point: reliable delivery of service to its customers” says Jackson. “MAISY agent-based modeling has been applied in utility smart grid and other technology impact analysis for equipment manufactures/suppliers including solar, CHP and fuel cells, as well as for forecasting future energy and hourly load impacts for utilities and public utility commissions so this application reflects a natural extension to specifically address
