Paula Mints is the founder and chief market research analyst of the global solar market research firm SPV Market Research.
All solar technologies have advantages and disadvantages, and all have to contend with being a variable resource.
By Paula Mints, SPV Market Research
In a perfect world, all solar technologies would work together to form an alliance to challenge conventional energy as well as competing renewable technologies for the hearts, minds and lungs of energy consumers everywhere. In an even more perfect world all renewable technologies would work together to displace conventional sources of energy, including nuclear power.
There are no perfect worlds. If there were the perfect world for solar would include affordable, reliable and non-polluting storage. A solid storage option (again, affordable, reliable and nonpolluting) could stimulate a dramatic change in the way the United States sources its electricity. Until that happy day comes, all solar technologies have advantages and disadvantages, and all have to contend with being a variable resource.
All solar technologies have to cope with and overcome the fact that the U.S. transmission and distribution (T&D) system is not ready for a significant and necessary shift in the way people source their electricity. All solar technologies need to work together to help energy consumers understand that conservation is not sacrifice. It is what we should have been doing all along— even in the early days when the polluting aspects of how we source our energy were misunderstood or simply ignored.
Technology For Residential Applications
Crystalline photovoltaic technologies are bankable and continue (even with a 9% increase in module prices in 2013) to be affordable, as well as being higher in conversion efficiency than thin-film technologies. Thin-film technologies, with the exception of First Solar’s CdTe technology and Solar Frontier’s CIGS technology, face bankability concerns currently. CdTe is not a preferred technology for rooftop solar.
CPV and CSP technologies are not appropriate for the residential application. The current tariff dispute is already leading to higher module prices in the U.S. market as manufacturers begin building risk in to their price strategies.
Large Ground-Mount Installations
First Solar’s CdTe technology is the only thin-film technology currently with an advantage in the United States for ground-mounted installations. Given that crystalline has a 91% share of global shipments (and capacity), as well as the technology’s efficiency advantage (even with the current uptick in module prices), crystalline technologies currently have the advantage. It would take a significant increase in prices for crystalline modules as well as considerable growth in CdTe capacity for there to be a shift in advantage in favor of thin-film technologies.
CSP technologies do not have a cost advantage for installations less than or equal to 1 MW.
CPV technology continues as an emerging sector and, faced with lower-cost crystalline, do not have an advantage. With continued deployment and demonstration of high levels of production, CPV could begin to gain share, but this will take time as well as committed investors who choose CPV for demonstration reasons.
Multi-Megawatt Installations
As with large ground-mount installations <1 MW, First Solar’s CdTe technology is the only thin-film technology currently with an advantage in the United States for the multi-megawatt (utility scale) segment. Again, however, there is a capacity issue and here, again, crystalline has the advantage. Cost is crucial for this segment, which requires the lowest cost of hardware. Even with increased prices for crystalline modules the margin squeeze is likely to fall on the side of the developer/investor.
CSP technologies would seem ideal for this application. The most appropriate areas for deployment are on public lands away from communities. Concerns in this regard are federally protected Indian cultural lands and endangered species. CSP technologies require a long build time, which adds to the long development timeline for projects of this size. When CSP projects are forced to halt construction for one reason or another, well, time is money. CSP has an advantage when CSP is the choice for reasons other than lowest cost or when CSP is subsidized for demonstration purposes.
CPV has an advantage for reasons of high conversion efficiency and enhanced production. However, gaining share will take time as well as committed investors who choose CPV for demonstration reasons.
Currently, the energy technology advantage in the United States goes to conventional energy. All renewable technologies need to work together to develop a strategy that favors a future where energy production is dominated by renewables, and this will require investment in storage as it ameliorates many of utility concerns about variability.
Solar needs to stay clear eyed and focused on the true competitors — natural gas, coal, nuclear — and work together even while competing to make certain that in the next few years the EIA chart begins showing a growing share of solar in terms of renewables as well as more conventional energy being displaced.
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